Seven weeks down, and we quite frankly can’t even say if any team is good. We can only say for sure that a handful of teams are bad. While the difference will become more obvious as the season rolls on, it’s shaping up to be a year with wide-open races down the stretch and a great deal of the parity the league makes it a point to have. Here are my 22 observations from this week in the NFL.
- We’ve all known for some time that the Bears have a generally suspect defense, but have the offense to stay in contention and win some big games. Regardless of the down-to-down quality of the defense, however, the touchdown they allowed to Rhamondre Stevenson as time ran out on the first half Thursday night was completely inexcusable.
- The fans in Paris were treated to a close game, which was nice. But they also got a game with very few possessions, only 13 in total. Both teams were perfectly content to milk the clock from the start, and both got down the field repeatedly even if they couldn’t capitalize. While the play calling was very different, the game flow was akin to watching a college matchup between two of the service academies.
- The latest spell of missed games with injury for Lamar Jackson, which mercifully appears to be coming to an end against Buffalo this Sunday, has left the Ravens with a razor-thin margin of error in a division packed with winning teams (more on that later). Provided he comes back and stays healthy for the rest of the year, they should still be a playoff team, but they’re behind the eight ball as of now on the division race and in regard to seeding. They’ll have to win pretty consistently in the back half of the season, particularly the games against teams they’re expected to beat.
- Todd Monken continues to impress in his first season as an NFL head coach. He managed the clock masterfully on Sunday, and just keeps finding ways to win with a roster that, while better than we may have realized before the season, still has its fair share of holes.
- Despite what the undefeated record would suggest, Kyler Murray and the Vikings offense have been incredibly disappointing, even more so than the numbers say. I have no doubt about their ability to win many more regular season games, but Murray needs to tap into the better versions of him we’ve seen if they want to have any success in the playoffs.
- The Minnesota defense, though, continues to dominate and win game after game. This week, Brian Flores dialed up a season-high 85.2% blitz rate. It worked to the tune of four sacks, and interception, and only 10 points allowed on 218 yards.
- The Jets, who’ve played teams tough all year, had a golden opportunity at home against a winless Dolphins team to get to 3-4 and put themselves vaguely in the hunt. A letdown proved instead that this team is still far, far away. Their trio of upcoming first-round picks in April could help, and there might need to be a new head coach and/or general manager by then.
- The lackluster performance of this Texans defense continues to be a problem. When games came down to the wire last year, this unit could be counted on to deliver. This week, two separate run plays gashed large holes in the defense and put the Giants in a position to steal the game. If they can’t solve their problems, they’ll have no chance in games where the offense struggles like it did Sunday.
- JJ McCarthy looked decent again this week, which is slightly more impressive given that the Houston pass rush is the one part of the defense that at least comes somewhat close to its preseason billing. It’s still far too early to say if this is a hot streak or real progress, but it’s still worth watching.
- The injuries for the 49ers are beginning to pile up, as they often do. Now that they’ve shown some cracks, the next few weeks should be a war of attrition to ensure they get a bit healthier and still manage to win more than they lose. Fortunately, they’ve got a multi-game buffer in the NFC West as of now.
- Regardless of 49ers injuries, that game was yet another example of the Falcons simply being a tough out. They’ve shown an ability to hang with tougher teams, and at this point should be expected to at least hang around, especially with the NFC South being what it is.
- In Baker Mayfield’s return, he only needed to pass for 64 yards en route to a blowout victory. Excluding kneel-downs, the Buccaneers had 12 designed pass plays and 46 designed runs. That disparity isn’t any sort of indictment of how Mayfield looked in his first game in a month, but of the defensive performance turned in by the Panthers. They were wholly incapable of stopping the run Sunday, even though they almost always should’ve known it was coming.
- Bryce Young wasn’t much better, coming crashing back down to Earth after a multi-game hot streak. As of late, he’s been showing flashes and even somewhat prolonged stretches of his exciting upside, but they’ve been mixed with real and worrying reminders of why he’s not considered a franchise quarterback at present. In a way, he’s very emblematic of the NFC South as a whole.
- The Broncos continue to look rough on a play-to-play basis, at least on offense. But they have found ways to win, much like the Browns and Vikings. As of now, the chances of making the playoffs for a third straight year look pretty good. But the chances of avoiding an early exit are less promising.
- While it’s understandable to be skeptical of a risky decision such as Dan Campbell’s choice to go for it on 4th down in his own territory late in a tie game, it does highlight a principle I wrote about recently. While the decision initially didn’t work out, Campbell factored in a great deal of context into his decision. This included the performances to that point by the offense and special teams of the Packers, the likelihood of his own offense being able to gain a yard, and the increased time to drive downfield following a potential Packers score of any kind. Some of that came to fruition, some was just luck. But you tend to find more luck when you use all of your information.
- It was good to see the Rams bounce back this week, turning in an impressive all-around performance on offense. Now we’ll need to see if they can sustain it the way they’re expected to.
- While the Raiders have many things going for them, especially in the long run, it was clear that their success wasn’t sustainable, and a fourth straight loss was proof of that.
- As I’ve written in this column multiple times now, the weapons for the Chiefs simply don’t win head-to-head on a consistent basis. That was extremely evident on Sunday night, and while not every team has the talent to shut them down as thoroughly as the Seahawks did, they at least provided a road map for slowing this team down.
- To say a bit more about the Seattle defense, they have been good but not great thus far this season, which has been the case for many of the defenses expected to be among the league’s best before the season began. It was exciting to see them step back up and deliver the elite type of performance demanded of them. It could be an indicator of things to come, a sign that they’ve found what was holding them back from last matching last year’s dominance.
- I don’t like to count out talented teams, especially in weak divisions, but I think the Eagles are done. At 2-5, they’re dealing with the facts that Tanner McKee is limited, injuries are everywhere, and things like chemistry and luck that they’ve had in the past are long gone. If they’re getting calls about good veterans, they should be taking them.
- To address one more controversial coaching decision, Brian Schottenheimer had a moment in Monday’s game that demonstrated the importance of separating process and results. In the final minute of the first half, with a running clock and two timeouts, he opted not to call a timeout after a completion in bounds when common sense would have seemingly dictated he do so. It seemed he was settling for a field goal and leaving a potential touchdown on the field. As it turned out, he actually realized that the Eagles were assuming the timeout and were unprepared for the Cowboys offense to hurry up and run another play. The subsequent pass went for 30 yards against a confused defense, and that was on one of Prescott’s worst throws of the night. Had the timing and placement been slightly better, that play might have ended with CeeDee Lamb running into the end zone rather than falling out of bounds at the nine-yard line. Dallas did eventually have to settle for a field goal, but it wasn’t for lack of a proper process, i.e. trying their best to come away with a touchdown.
- Finally, just a quick word about the North divisions. Through seven weeks, the combined eight teams in the AFC and NFC North are all over .500. Sure, one or two teams per division are liable to cool off in the second half, but right now it’s awfully compelling to watch both of those races unfold. Let’s hope it stays this way as long as possible!
