More Likely: Worst to First or First to Worst?
First to worst. The Jaguars are a prime regression candidate, and both the Colts and Titans have reasons to expect some improvement this year. But those same Titans shouldn’t expect to pass the Texans, who won 12 games in what amounted to an unlucky 2025 season.
Hottest Seat?
I think Shane Steichen is a very good coach, but he’s the obvious choice here. Three years in, he has no playoff appearances to his name. A fourth such season would likely be the end of his tenure in Indianapolis. If they do miss the playoffs and he is in fact let go, he won’t be unemployed for long.
Likeliest MVP Candidate?
Almost by default, it’s Trevor Lawrence. Based on the lackluster performance from CJ Stroud last year, injury concerns for Daniel Jones, and Cam Ward still being early in his development, Lawrence has the best chance to build on the votes he received last year and make a serious push for the award. Ward taking a huge leap and leading his team to the division title, like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams did in 2025.
Fantasy League Winner?
Jonathan Taylor, as this division continues to be full of readily apparent superlatives. There’s no reason to expect anything other than a constant stream of carries for Taylor, who has over 3,000 yards on the ground over the last two years and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season. Appropriately going in the first round on a consistent basis, he’s going to be more featured than any other running back in the AFC South. Nico Collins is the lone WR1 in the division whose target-share will be truly dominant, but the Texans are likely to favor the run as much as their week-to-week game flow allows for it.
What To Watch:
- Brian Thomas, Jr. lit the world on fire as a rookie, displaying a propensity for big plays that made him look like arguably the best to come out of a loaded 2024 WR draft class. But he could seemingly never get on the same page as Liam Coen and his offense last year. If he plays like the guy who looked like he might ascend into the top 10 at the position, this stable of receivers will be a nightmare to defend. If he plays like the guy who was not so subtly called out by his head coach to the media, he could be on a different roster by season’s end.
- Despite a year-to-year decline of sorts, the Texans still exercised Stroud’s fifth-year option, tying him to the team through the end of the 2027 season. If he has another disappointing year, will they play out his deal for another year and give him every chance to live up to what we saw from him as a rookie, or will they try to make moves that could land them a replacement?
- The Colts were a very good football team the first half of last year, but the record felt mildly inflated the whole time. If they have a similar start but Daniel Jones stays healthy this time around, we’ll see how long they can keep it up this time.
- While it’s often hard to gauge to whom credit should go in developmental situations, it’s a fact that Brian Daboll is given plenty of praise for helping Josh Allen grow out of many of his bad habits early in his career. Given the reputation that’s created for him, it should be interesting to see how Ward has progressed over this offseason and if he progresses as the season goes on.
All-Division Team:
QB – Trevor Lawrence
RB – Jonathan Taylor
RB – David Montgomery
WR – Nico Collins
WR – Parker Washington
WR – Alec Pierce
TE – Tyler Warren
TE – Brenton Strange
LT – Bernhard Raimann
LG – Quenton Nelson
C – Tanor Bortolini
RG – Ezra Cleveland
RT – Trent Brown
DL – Jeffery Simmons
DL – DeForest Buckner
DL – Sheldon Rankins
ED – Will Anderson, Jr.
ED – Danielle Hunter
LB – Azeez Al-Shaair
LB – Foyesade Oluokun
LB – Jake Hansen
CB – Derek Stingley, Jr.
CB – Sauce Gardner
FS – Calen Bullock
SS – Reed Blankenship
NB – Jalen Pitre
K – Ka’imi Fairbairn
P – Rigoberto Sanchez
RS – Parker Washington
