Today, I’d like to revisit and update some observations I made in one of my season preview articles, as the topic feels timely given recent happenings across the sports world.
In the last year and a half or so, we’ve seen several first-time champions crowned, with the most recent taking place last night when the Milwaukee Brewers recorded to final out to seal their first World Series title. We’ve also seen first-time national titles from UCLA in women’s basketball and Indiana in football, as well as the Oklahoma City Thunder winning their first NBA championship. On Saturday night, in the WNBA, the Golden State Valkyries and the Atlanta Dream will be facing off in Game 7 of the WNBA Finals, and the victors will claim the first championship in their respective franchise’s history.
Before the season began, I wrote an article placing the 12 NFL teams without a Super Bowl win in tiers regarding their likelihood of being the next first-time Super Bowl winner. That article can be found here.
As we find ourselves several weeks into the season with a lot of new information, the chances for some of these teams have moved considerably in one direction or the other. Instead of looking at long-term prospects, though, I’m simply going to rank them briefly on their chances of winning their first Super Bowl this year.
- Bills – Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and will almost surely have them in a strong position to make a deep playoff run. Joe Brady looks to be a good head coach based on early returns.
- Vikings – I know it seems disrespectful not to have put the undefeated team first, but the offense has been suspect. But if they maintain the best record in the NFC and Kyler Murray gets hot at the right time, they have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make a run.
- Jaguars – Poised at this point to run away with the AFC South, Jacksonville should win plenty of games and be in a spot to contend. They’ve shown a few different ways they can win this season.
- Bengals – Admittedly, this was a toss-up, but the Jaguars won head-to-head a few weeks ago. But these guys have been to the Super Bowl once already, and Joe Burrow certainly has what it takes to get them there again.
- Lions – If the defense keeps getting healthier and the match-ups shake out right in the playoffs, we know this team can score points. And we know they’ll make the aggressive moves that can swing a game.
- Texans – The defense has been a mess, but it’s not like the talent isn’t there. CJ Stroud and the offense have made enough strides that if we suddenly see the 2025 defense, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with. But I’m not holding out hope.
- Browns – It’s hardly fathomable to have them this high, but their young talent on both sides of the ball is for real. But this does feel more like something that could happen a couple years down the road if their abundant capital this offseason lands them a franchise quarterback and one or two other contributing pieces.
- Panthers – They’re streaky, but seeing as they’re currently in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, an especially hot streak coming in January could get them where they want to. Feels unlikely, though.
- Falcons – A similar story to the rival Panthers, but being at a disadvantage to Carolina in the division and head-to-head puts them one spot behind.
- Cardinals – Not much reason for optimism here, but they’ve played well against a couple of talented teams.
- Titans – Based on the trade made earlier today, the Titans don’t view their season as going anywhere positive from here. Neither does anyone else.
- Chargers – Considered a top AFC contender in August, they’re now winless two months later. They have roughly the same chance (historically speaking, zero) as the Titans, but I put them last because the Titans have a win and play in a division that might not have an elite team, while the Chargers have none and play in a division that most definitely does.
While things turn on a dime in college, and while this season has been unpredictable enough that what I say here could come crashing down this very weekend, I’d like to at least acknowledge the teams in realistic CFP position who don’t have any predominantly recognized national championships to their names. I won’t be going into ranking or analyzing them, but they are as follows (order based on current AP ranking):
- Utah
- UCLA
- Kentucky
- Texas Tech
- Wake Forest
- Boise State
- Arizona
If your team is out of it, at either level, hopefully this gives you a fun story to root for as the season carries on!
