As we begin to realistically count down by hours rather than just days until the NFL season begins, it would seem that here and now is the only thing that matters. For players and coaches, fans and media, it is all that matters for the next five months or so. However, greatness is evaluated over a longer period of time than five months or even five years. I think it’s valuable, and even just simply intriguing, to take stock of those playing currently who we expect to see in the Hall of Fame one day, and what needs to be done to get them there.
Below, I’ve tiered players currently on NFL rosters (obviously Bobby Wagner will make it to the Hall of Fame, but unfortunately he doesn’t currently qualify for this exercise) based on their likelihood of being inducted one day. I’m predominantly looking at those who are far enough along in their careers to seriously be having this conversation. That being said, I have included a tier at the end highlighting a few younger players who are very much producing at a Hall of Fame level early, but who were drafted in this decade, and therefore should hopefully have more of their careers ahead of them than behind them. Many of these will be obvious, but I will include brief comments at the end of each tier to address possible misunderstandings or disagreements. Let’s see who’s en route to a gold jacket!
Players listed alphabeticlly by last name
Mortal Locks
Davante Adams, Aaron Donald, Mike Evans, Myles Garrett, Derrick Henry, Cam Heyward, Lamar Jackson, Lane Johnson, Travis Kelce, Khalil Mack, Patrick Mahomes, Von Miller, Quenton Nelson, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Ramsey, Harrison Smith, Matthew Stafford, Joe Thuney, TJ Watt, Trent Williams
These are the guys who could quite literally retire (or re-retire) today and be guaranteed Hall of Famers. Most speak for themselves, but a couple of clarifications would probably be helpful. While man, if not most, of these are first-ballot guys, I realize the receivers will probably have to wait longer, courtesy of a severe backlog at the position from too many deserving candidates, a result of increases in the passing game that have given immutable resumes to many. But I have no doubt about either of them getting in there. As for Quenton Nelson, because I understand if it feels a bit early to put him here. But plenty of the voters don’t understand offensive line play intimately, and only have distinctions already voted upon to use in their decisions. Through eight years, Quenton Nelson is already a six-time All-Pro and an eight-time Pro Bowler. He could retire today and undoubtedly get in; a few more years of this and you can schedule his induction date as soon as his retirement papers have been filed to the league office.
Right on Track
Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Danielle Hunter, Derwin James, Chris Jones, Cameron Jordan, Alvin Kamara, George Kittle, Dexter Lawrence II, Christian McCaffrey, Jeffery Simmons, Ronnie Stanley, Jonathan Taylor, Vita Vea, Denzel Ward, Fred Warner, Quinnen Williams
This group is comprised of players who might be able to retire today and get in, but are at most 1-3 good years away from being in the Mortal Locks tier. Most of these guys are or should be going to the Hall of Fame, and it’s reasonable to assume that if they play remotely as much more as is expected, they will have little trouble getting that call (save, once again, for AJ Brown, who will likely get caught in the WR backlog for a few years before induction). The primary question here probably has to do with Josh Allen being in this tier while Lamar Jackson is in the one above him. Plain and simple, it’s about that second MVP. There’s a smattering of non-Hall of Famers who have won one MVP. Once you win a second, as Jackson has, that’s as close as it comes to promising you a spot in Canton. To clarify, I believe Allen will retire as an all-time great QB; he may just need one more year of really good numbers to move up a tier. Another MVP or even an appearance in the Super Bowl would also cement it for him.
Cameron Jordan is a bit of a tricky situation, as much of his statistical case (currently sitting at 132 sacks) is based in longevity. But those numbers are still usually going to get you in, and if he has 7.5 sacks this year (he had 10.5 in 2025), he’ll reach 139.5, a threshold which every player to ever clear is now in the Hall of Fame. (Tier 1 stars Garrett and Miller could also cross that threshold in 2026.) On the interior of the defensive line, Jones is a near-lock with obvious numbers to back it up, while the other defensive tackles only have the reputations without the gaudy sack numbers. I’m trusting the voters here to understand how well they fill their roles and why it doesn’t always show up on a box score.
Still A Fighting Chance
Jessie Bates III, Odell Beckham, Jr., Maxx Crosby, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Chris Godwin, Trey Hendrickson, Cooper Kupp, Morgan Moses, Dak Prescott
These players are likely all at or past the midpoints of their careers, and the chances of reaching the Hall of Fame are not great. But there is a path for each of these players. For example, if Bates continues to play at a high level for a few more years and has more interception luck, he’ll get real consideration. If Prescott wins an MVP and/or a Super Bowl, as well as retiring with some 50,000+ yards and 350+ touchdowns, he’ll have a good shot. If Godwin stays healthy for a couple of years and breaks 10,000 career yards, his chances will go way up. All have some hope, with varying degrees of probability. But none are quite on pace as of right now.
Off To A Great Start
Will Anderson, Jr., Brandon Aubrey, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Landon Dickerson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyle Hamilton, Justin Herbert, Crred Humphrey, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Trey McBride, Puka Nacua, Micah Parsons, Bijan Robinson, Penei Sewell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Smith, Derek Stingley, Jr., Patrick Surtain II, Tristan Wirfs
It’s far too early to actually discuss the Hall of Fame with any of these guys, as they’ve all played between three and six years in the league. But based on what we’ve seen thus far, it’s been enough to get you thinking. At roughly the decade mark for each of these, we’ll be able to see more clearly whether or not they’re still on a Hall of Fame trajectory or not.
