Week 3, as it often does, began to clarify a little more which teams are in contention and which ones have serious choices to make regarding the long-term states of their respective franchises. Some unexpected teams are on the brink, and some unexpected contenders have genuinely emerged. Let’s talk about it:
- The Packers are quite simply bad thus far. They’ve fallen short of my expectations early on, and I had them missing the playoffs for the first time since Jordan Love took over as the starter. The rumors last year that Matt LaFleur might be fired seemed a bit far-fetched even after the late-season collapse that led to a crushing rivalry playoff loss in Chicago. Now they have to be taken seriously, even with an extension set to kick in starting next year.
- Bijan Robinson was dominant in Thursday night’s game, and social media was quick to anoint him as the league’s best running back. Jahmyr Gibbs was quick to score three touchdowns on Sunday. This has been a terrific battle since those two were in the draft together, and I don’t want to see it slow down any time soon.
- I don’t know how many games the Jets are going to win, but I do know Aaron Glenn has those guys playing hard. Really hard.
- The Steelers offense looked surprisingly good on Sunday. It’s hard to say for sure whether it was a last glimpse of the years of productive offenses put together by Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy, if they’re actually rounding into shape as a unit, or whether the Cincinnati defense has feasted on troubled offenses early on. We’ll have to continue watching both teams to see.
- After a heartbreaking divisional loss in the waning moments, the Texans are on the brink more than ever now, particularly with a talented Cowboys team coming to town who are in need of a win themselves. Coming back from an 0-3 record to win 12 games last season was impressive enough, but they don’t want to be in position to make history as only the second team to start 0-4 and still make the playoffs. 0-4 might also lead to the firing of Nick Caley if they don’t take advantage of a vulnerable Dallas defense the week after putting up on 17 against a Colts team that had been consistently exploited through the two previous weeks.
- The aforementioned 0-4 eventual playoff team was the 1992 Chargers, and the 2026 Chargers could also be in the unenviable position of trying to repeat their own franchise history. They play next week against what has to be an angry Seahawks team following an upset by the Commanders. If the Chargers want to have any hope at salvaging what was supposed to be a special season, they have get it together now.
- Elsewhere in the AFC West, the Chiefs demonstrated a real weakness, even in a double-digit win. Their receivers simply can’t reliably win matchups to get open, and at a certain point they’re going to have to if they want to win big games.
- On the plus side for the Chiefs, however, that hasn’t mattered yet. Obviously Week 3 is far too early to speculate seriously about any awards, but I will say this: if Kenneth Walker III keeps this sort of play up, he’ll be in the running for Offensive Player of the Year. Potentially alongside Robinson and/or Gibbs, whose elite status I’ve already discussed here.
- I’ll be entirely honest: I don’t know what’s happened to Drake Maye. Ebbs and flows are natural in quarterback play, and this offseason obviously had its fair share of distractions. Not to mention his best weapon having been on the shelf for most of the early season. But this level of play has been shocking; the team can’t afford to have it continue much longer.
- Speaking of ebbs and flows in quarterback play, Bryce Young took a clear step back from his first two weeks on Sunday against the Browns. Based on what we’ve seen from the Detroit defense this season, I would expect a rebound on Sunday night. The following game, in Philadelphia, will probably tell us more about whether Cleveland was an aberration or if he’s riding the same roller coaster we saw last year.
- The Titans might be cleaning house, whether that’s really fair to Robert Saleh or not. The team doesn’t look tough or prepared, and Cam Ward has shown none of the progress they hoped. It’s entirely possible that the team takes their high draft pick to use on another quarterback, and brings in a head coach who can develop him.
- Saleh’s old team, the 49ers, are off to a hot start. Brock Purdy, in particular, is having the best start of his career. He’s accounted for at least three touchdowns in every game so far, and is really showing off his full arsenal as both a passer and runner more than he ever has before. It’s honestly just really fun to watch right now.
- With Baker Mayfield going down for the next three weeks, you can pretty much close the book on this Buccaneers season. This was seemingly a sinking ship already and will likely lead to the ousting of Todd Bowles before too long, but in the soft NFC South they had a chance to turn it around before Mayfield’s injury. Now that’s hard to envision. With the way things are headed, what gets interesting now is their draft position, which seems like it’s going to be in a coveted spot. They could reunite Emeka Egbuka with old Ohio State teammate Jeremiah Smith. They’ll have their pick of the top defensive players in the draft who can help fix a really rough unit as of late. Or the best-case scenario: since Mayfield begins a lucrative new contract next year, they can sell their pick for a king’s ransom to a team without a quarterback or a top pick.
- I’ve mentioned a number of head coaches already who might lose their jobs, but one coach who might be moving up and getting another head coaching job is Brian Flores. His ability to get the most out of his unit is astounding, and he has everything he needs to be a successful head coach on his second time around, especially if he goes somewhere with an established quarterback and offensive identity in place.
- Two straight wins to start the year for the Raiders were easy to dismiss as an early-season fluke, but once you get to three you have to be taken seriously. The free agent shopping spree is paying off big time now, as is the failure of Maxx Crosby’s trade to Baltimore, as this talented team is being talked about heading into an undefeated showdown with the rival Chiefs.
- Even with the impetus to take the Raiders a bit more seriously, I think many fans league-wide would agree there are at least seven other AFC teams more likely to find themselves in the playoffs than the Raiders. Even if they do fall off, though, the floor for their win total is far higher now than many would’ve expected. With three wins under their belts already, they still have games against the Jets, Browns, Titans, and Cardinals, plus a second game against the Chargers when they may have called it a season and against the Chiefs in Week 18 when they might be resting starters. Six wins feels like the bare minimum, and somewhere around .500 seems to be more likely than that.
- The Saints don’t play boring fourth quarters. The first two weeks they had big comebacks and this week they allowed one, but they have yet to have a game be decided in either direction before the final moments.
- The Cowboys should’ve forced a kick return after tying the game with seven seconds left instead of kicking through the end zone. I realize hindsight is 20/20, but this was a relatively easy conclusion to reach when trying to avoid precisely what ended up happening to them. I’m guessing they wish now that they had forced those extra seconds to come off the clock.
- Declan Doyle wasn’t aggressive enough in putting the Cowboys away well before that. On multiple fourth downs and other short situational decisions, everybody in the stadium knew what was coming. And some of them haven’t been watching American football for very long. Dallas was able to simply line up and play with only one thing in mind, and it went in their favor.
- While that Dallas defense is still a long way off from being good, credit where credit is due: they knew what was coming two weeks ago against the Giants and still couldn’t stop it. This time, they could at least stop what they could expect.
- I know I’m far from the first one to make this connection, but Sean Payton beating Sean McVay with late-game pass interference controversy was a hilarious twist of irony.
- Last night’s game has already generated a great deal of debate, to which I’ll personally add my opinion here: Jalen Hurts did not look good last night. He hasn’t looked all that good this year, to be frank. That could be due to any number of factors, including lack of experience in the scheme. If it’s something longer-term than that, that will become more apparent as the schedule ramps up in difficulty, and the offensive struggles will become a bigger and bigger talking point each week if they persist.
Week 4 will bring us more teams who reel in their panic levels from the brink, and more teams (not to mention players and coaches) whose fates are sealed. I look forward to sharing more observations next week.
