On this first day of October, we find ourselves roughly a month into football season, giving or taking a few days depending on whether we’re talking about college or pro football. In this case, we’ll be talking a little about both.
Much has been made, since at least the start of the NFL year in March, of the 2027 QB draft class. There are enough intriguing names in play that little consensus has formed about the order of these passers, and even when it comes into focus in January, the order of most of them will still be hotly contested. What’s also in question at this point is which of them will even still be candidates for a first-round selection, as many of them have faced adversity that could depress their respective draft positions or even send some of them back to school for another season.
As such, this approximate month mark seemed as good a time as any to take stock of how the projected top QB prospects have looked, as well as very briefly at the teams who may be interested in picking them come April.
Prospects
Arch Manning: It makes sense to get the most obvious one out of the way first. Manning’s name recognition and considerable talents have had him in these discussions for two seasons now. His Longhorns are currently ranked #1 in the AP Poll with Top 25 wins over Tennessee and Ohio State, so the ideal plan of winning the Heisman Trophy, winning a National Championship, and being picked first in the NFL Draft seems to hypothetically be on track. He’s had some truly excellent moments in the aforementioned high-profile victories, but has continued to show some signs of weakness in processing and footwork. There are few perfect prospects, especially at QB, but teams will still want some of those questions answered. I still expect, between his own abilities and the appeal of his last name, that he’ll be a high pick, though it’s not quite guaranteed yet that he goes first like his uncles did. Some have speculated that he might use his remaining year of eligibility to keep working on his game, but odds are we see him cross the stage in our nation’s capital in April.
Dante Moore: Unfortunately for Moore, he’s been talked about most lately for a brutal concussion he sustained last week against USC. While it’s unknown if or when he’ll be back this season from that injury, it shouldn’t affect his draft stock unless there are neck issues relating to that hit which linger. In the early weeks, he hadn’t looked quite as good as he did in 2025. Like Manning, he’d been having some issues with his progressions. Still, though, he’s tremendously talented and some team will likely be picking him in the top half of the first round this year. But unlike last year, when he almost certainly would have gone second overall, he might not even be the second QB off the board in a substantially more crowded class, even if it does experience some attrition.
Darian Mensah: Recent mocks have shown Mensah going in the 10-15 range, but he’s been exceptional in his first few games with the Hurricanes. The biggest knock on him thus far has been his slender frame (he’s built similarly to Commanders QB Jayden Daniels), but he’s a top-notch passer whose draft stock might go up into the top 5, especially if my pre-season prediction of Miami winning it all comes to fruition. If anybody’s stock should be moving up in this cramped group, it’s Mensah.
Trinidad Chambliss: Another QB whose size has assuredly been a deterrent for scouts, along with his arm not being quite elite. His performances in SEC play and the College Football Playoff are hard to ignore, though, no matter if he’s slightly undersized or not. It still doesn’t seem like his impressive play will be enough to vault him past all of the other contenders to be picked in the first round, but he definitely has a strong chance to go at some point in that round anyway, even if it’s a bit later. And he’ll fly up the board if a couple of these guys decide to stay in school.
Drew Mestemaker: He’s begun adjusting well to the move up to a Power 4 conference, and the embarrassing loss to Tulsa is balanced out by beating Moore and Oregon and by the fact that Tulsa has a surprising 3-1 record to this point. His inexperience and his gunslinger nature may dissuade some teams near the top from having him as the best QB on the board, but I won’t be surprised at all by any teams that do have him there.
CJ Carr: It’s been fairly quiet around Carr early on, but as he gets into bigger games against top competition, he’ll have more buzz if he performs as well as he has thus far. His upside is lower than those I’ve already mentioned, but when teams see him throw the ball they’ll be seeing an NFL QB. With this stiff competition, though, he has plenty of justification to stay in South Bend for another year.
LaNorris Sellers: A projected first-rounder ahead of the 2025 season, Sellers fell out of favor after a tough year and returned to school. It was always going to be an uphill battle to catch the players we’ve discussed already, but continued struggles have put that chance to bed. His physical tools will still get him drafted, but probably not until Day 3. His previous estimation bore mentioning in this article, though.
Julian Sayin: While he’s been productive once again this year, Sayin will need to show that he can deliver in tough games, which he struggled to do late last year and again in the blown lead to Arch Manning and Texas last month. Given that and being slightly undersized, I’d say there’s a good chance he stays for one more season and tests his luck in the 2028 Draft.
Teams
Jets: Clearly planning to pick a QB, and likely to surround him with other quality rookies courtesy of two extra first-round picks.
Dolphins: Doubtful that Malik Willis is a long-term answer. While they could wait until a roster is built and then plug a QB into it, it’s hard to pass on this amount of talent at the position.
Steelers: If Drew Allar has been showing them anything this point is moot, but if not, one of these guys will slide enough to be picked by the Steelers, whose place in the draft order is anyone’s guess.
Browns: It’s time for Cleveland to take another shot at finding a franchise QB, especially with some exciting young talent that will immediately surround him.
Texans: This would be more of a surprise, but if the season keeps going poorly and the relationship between CJ Stroud and the franchise continues to get rockier, they could look for their next signal-caller here.
Titans: It doesn’t seem like Cam Ward is going to pan out, and they don’t seem interested in waiting around in case he does. They’ll have a high pick and will probably use it at the most important position.
Vikings: Off to a great start, but Kyler Murray isn’t going to be their choice for the long haul. They might let someone fall to them, but they could trade for a veteran again if Kevin O’Connell wants someone with NFL action under his belt.
Falcons: They have exciting weapons, but need someone who can play at a high level and get the ball to them consistently.
Cardinals: They’ve been expected since the offseason to get a top pick and take the best QB available. I doubt the plan has changed.
