We often hear the stat cited, especially at this time of year, that nearly 40% of playoff teams from a given year will miss them in the ensuing year, on average. In the “new” (relatively speaking, that is) 14-team playoff system, that means we should expect to see 8-9 returning teams and 5-6 new ones. I believe those figures serve as a useful reminder when making predictions, although many of us end up penciling most playoff teams to go right back again the next year out of cautious habit.
Last year held to that standard, giving us eight repeat playoff teams and six fresh participants, including the two teams who met in the Super Bowl. Along with the Seahawks and Patriots, the postseason welcomed the Jaguars, Bears, Panthers, and 49ers into the fray while leaving out the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Commanders.
So, which teams from last year’s playoff field will find themselves watching the playoffs from home this time around? I rank all 14 of last year’s teams below on my estimation of how likely they are to return. I’ve included Vegas odds for each as a frame of reference for how these rankings stack up with the consensus view.
Disclaimer: these rankings will not be reflected exactly in my official predictions for the season next week. This ranks teams by likelihood, but you have to make some unlikely picks if you want to be right.
- Los Angeles Rams – The team with the best offense in the league last year and a narrow runner-up in the NFC Championship, they used this offseason to make the necessary improvements in the other two phases. New special teams coach Bubba Ventrone comes in to fix a unit that was their biggest liability in 2025. As for the defense, they brought in a future Hall of Fame edge rusher, a proven cornerback tandem, and arguably the greatest defensive tackle ever. Barring a season-ending injury at the most important position, this team will get to the playoffs and stay there. Playoff odds: -460.
- Houston Texans – A defense that might have been the league’s best last year somehow got better over the offseason, and it’s almost as hard to miss the playoffs with a defense this good as it would have been for the above-listed Rams to miss with their offense even if they had simply run last year’s whole squad back. The offense for Houston was a major concern last year, and that concern isn’t entirely gone, for sure. But with attempts to improve the offensive line and a major upgrade at running back, the chances of being at least somewhat improved are pretty good. This high ranking can also be attributed to the vulnerable division in which these guys play. While they weren’t the only AFC South team in the playoffs last year, the other is much further down this list. Playoff odds: -180.
- Seattle Seahawks – Naturally, the reigning Super Bowl champions weren’t going to fall far from the top. Once again trusting the merits of an elite defense, I would expect to see them back for a second straight year. There are some small worries, though. They lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to a head coaching job in Vegas, they lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, and the top-notch defense from last year is older and unlikely to have quite as good fortune with health as they had last season. They’re still a strong contender to repeat, but didn’t necessarily get better like the two teams ahead of them. Playoff odds: -225.
- Philadelphia Eagles – Participants in each of the last five postseasons and two of the last four Super Bowls, I’ll always assume their presence in January until further notice. Losing AJ Brown stings, though they have put together a promising and well-rounder receiver room to compensate. Jaelan Phillips was the other major loss, but Howie Roseman simply replaced him with Jonathan Greenard in a trade that would have been stunning if executed by any other GM. This defense will be dominant once again, and the offense has scary-good potential, but at worst should be expected to do the bare minimum to win double-digit games yet again. Playoff odds: -186.
- Los Angeles Chargers – The loss of defensive coordinator hurts, but it’s the change at the other coordinator spot that informs this high ranking. Mike McDaniel is a proven play-caller who will undoubtedly get the most out of Justin Herbert and the weapons that surround him. Furthermore, the offense should be even better than just a scheme change, as stud tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater will be back after missing a combined 28 games last year. This may be the best NFL offense Herbert has ever played in. As for the defense, new coordinator Chris O’Leary is well-versed in the system and is thought of very highly in the coaching world. Playoff odds: -168.
- Buffalo Bills – It feels odd to put a nearly-guaranteed playoff team this low, but in the top half of these rankings, we are still looking at teams who I’d be surprised to not see in the playoffs. The Bills being ranked a bit lower than usual comes mostly from a totally unproven head coach, a tougher schedule, and lingering concerns about the defense that was their downfall last season. But at the end of the day, I’d still expect to see them there. Playoff odds: -320.
- San Francisco 49ers – The talent on this team is undeniable, and got even better over the offseason. If I could guarantee a mostly healthy team, I would have them 3-4 spots higher. But this team has a track record of bad injury luck. Most of their best players at this point are 30 or older with significant injury histories. They still round out the top half of these rankings because the overall roster talent is enough to insulate against a certain amount of injury beyond the norm, but the distinct possibility of going further beyond the norm than they can handle is what gives me reason to become skeptical. Playoff odds: -146.
- Green Bay Packers – Another team that’s rightfully expected to be an annual contender. They do play in a tough division, though, and between Micah Parsons missing at least the first month of the season and Josh Jacobs away from the team indefinitely, there are more questions marks than there were a year ago. And it’s not like there are any truly weak links in the NFC North for them to use as free wins. Playoff odds: -150.
- New England Patriots – Super Bowl hangovers aren’t a guarantee, but they’re common enough to consider when evaluating a team’s prospects. Even more so when that team’s schedule is harder than it was a year ago. The addition of AJ Brown helps elevate their offense, though, which has a good chance to be enough to keep them in contention. Playoff odds: -225.
- Denver Broncos – Up until they lost their starting quarterback on a fluke play at the end of a game that was fundamentally over, the Broncos had a whole lot of luck. Now that’s not to say they aren’t a very talented or well-coached team, because they are. But luck as statistically dramatic as theirs last year typically ends up swinging in the opposite direction sooner rather than later. The strength of the division in which they play doesn’t help their cause. Playoff odds: -140.
- Chicago Bears – Much like Denver, some regression is to be expected, especially with the number of takeaways an otherwise underwhelming defense had. In the latter parts of the year, we did see realy progress from Caleb Williams, the kind of plays you want to see from the franchise quarterback you hope to draft when using the first overall pick. However, quarterback progress year-to-year is not linear. If Williams takes any small step back rather than a large one forward, there are three hungry teams waiting in the wings to take their NFC North crown. Playoff odds: -108.
- Carolina Panthers – Winning a lackluster division with a losing record is hardly a sustainable endeavor. While I was impressed by their offseason moves on the defensive side of the ball, they’ve already been hit by injury book on that side of the ball. In reality, though, this time will go or not go as far as still-unprove Bryce Young can take them. Playoff odds: +220.
- Jacksonville Jaguars – The 2025 Jaguars were a textbook case of overachievement with a new and talented head coach. They could and should still be a tough out this year, but likely won’t win the 13 games they won last year. Continued murkiness about how Travis Hunter will be deployed this season and the departure of last year’s best defensive player don’t help matters. Playoff odds: +110.
- Pittsburgh Steelers – Without the steadying influence of Mike Tomlin to keep them afloat as he always has, I would expect the Steelers to drop off, especially if the last we saw of Aaron Rodgers is any indication. It’s been a decade since Rodgers and Mike McCarthy were last really able to get a great offense going together, and I wouldn’t expect it to suddenly come back that now. The rest of this roster is aging as well. Playoff odds: +140.
It’s anybody’s guess how accurate these end up being, because there are no guarantees in football. Who would’ve thought that the Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions would all have been absent from last year’s playoffs? They render likelihoods irrelevant once they play the games. And we only have to wait one more week to see them do that.
