As a general rule, we get used to a certain consistency of MVP candidates. For example, over the course of the previous decade, either Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers was my preseason pick for MVP almost every year. (It would be quite a shock to see either one win it this season.) Since then, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have each become yearly favorites, now possessing two wins each. Josh Allen got his win two years ago, and I think many of us suspect one is in the cards for Joe Burrow at some point. But we can’t usually anticipate Drake Maye almost winning in his second year, or Matt Ryan suddenly claiming it as he did a decade ago. In that spirit, here are three players, all still quite well-known, who would still come as a bit of a shock to see accepting this award five months from now in Los Angeles.
Baker Mayfield:
This might not seem like the most shocking choice if you remember how he looked the first six weeks of 2025. But the second-half collapse of the Buccaneers makes that all a distant memory. That hot start was also aided by having arguably the best set of weapons in the league. And now? Mike Evans is on the other end of the continent. Rachaad White is hoping for a larger touch share in a murky Commanders backfield. And Chris Godwin is a year older, coming off multiple injury-riddled seasons. I think it’s reasonable to expect Tampa Bay to outplay last year’s spectacular drop-off, win 9 or 10 games, and reclaim the NFL’s weakest division as their own. If they go something more like 12-5, though, with the level of play we saw last September from Mayfield, he’ll put himself firmly in the running.
Kyler Murray:
Murray has spent the majority of multiple different seasons as a serious contender, but troubles have come each time that have caused both his case for MVP and Arizona’s for a real shot at winning in the playoffs to crumble. With the best coaching he’s had at the pro level, he might have a glimmer of hope if his best moments have a little more staying power this time around. If we imagine the Vikings winning the NFC North (or at least having one of the league’s best records, like they did while finishing second in 2024), the narrative is easy enough to conjure: QB play sank the team last year, and he stepped up to prevent the same fate from finding them again. If he stays healthy all year and leads them back to the playoffs, he’ll get much of the credit, especially with the defense in more flux than it’s been in a few years.
Jonathan Taylor:
This is the longest shot, as a non-QB hasn’t won in 14 years. But if the Colts start off how they did last year and keep pace for the duration, there will be some hardware headed to Indianapolis. Coach of the Year going to Shane Steichen is basically a given, but the same can’t necessarily be said about Daniel Jones and the MVP. If Taylor leads the league in rushing, and particularly if he breaks his own franchise record for single-season rushing yardage, he can give himself at least a shot, much like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry did two years ago before ultimately ceding the award to Allen.
If this season is anything like last season was, we’ll be looking at an even more unexpected candidate making a push a few months from now. But if not, the sleeper in the running could be one of these, provided the usual suspects don’t lap the field.
